Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Options: investing or gambling?

Most people associate "options" with sheer gambling -- just read the rousing condemnation of them in Peter Lynch's generally excellent book "One Up on Wall Street", for example. Yet -- pause for a moment and think about it -- each option trade has two counterparts, a buyer and a seller... can they both be "gambling"?

Option trading is a zero sum game, after all (net of commissions -- and, on a deep-discount brokers today, those aren't too terrible): if one party is taking a likely small loss in the unlikely chance of scoring a large gain, doesn't it stand to reason that the other party must be accepting a likely small gain in the unlikely chance of giving up a large loss (or, more precisely, the unlikely chance of missing out on the possibility of a large gain)?

The way I like to look at it is: options (covered calls, specifically) are somewhat like lottery tickets. The buyer of a lottery ticket pays a small price and usually gets nothing in return, but once in a while "might" walk off with a jackpot; the seller of a lottery ticket has no chance of thereby making a fortune, but pockets with certainty the ticket's small price and, by repeatedly selling many tickets, makes a pretty steady income. Once in a while the ticket just sold will have been a winning one -- this is not "a large loss" to the seller, unless said seller incorrectly "frames" it mentally in that way;-), but it can be seen as having "missed out on the possibility of a large gain".

A lottery seller who was terrified of one day selling the jackpot-winning ticket and thereby hoarded all tickets himself, never selling any, would nullify the small but steady and certain income they might have realized by selling the tickets to the public. If anything, this is the "gambling" attitude -- never sell a ticket because it just "might" be the big winner -- really similar to buying tickets with a similar hope, after all.

And this, believe it or not, is what most conservative investors end up doing, without realizing it: by not selling covered call options on their stocks, they're unknowingly turning into gamblers!-)

OK, this is put somewhat paradoxically, mostly to whet your appetite for more discussion of options, but more and more writers are getting convinced of that and making a good job at explaining and evangelizing this strategy. I'll have much more to say about it, too, but, for now, you could start e.g. with this site, which seems to do quite a decent job getting you started, or many of the excellent books on the subject.

I recommend Ron Groenke's books and site (if you don't mind the idea of paying 150+ $/year for his Windows-only software) and Paul D. Kadavy's "Covered Call Writing" and "Put Option Writing" books (his software, actually just several simple and useful Excel spreadsheets, is free -- you just have to write to ask for a copy at the address given in the books -- but differently from Groenke's it doesn't get info such as stock prices and option premiums from the net, you have to look it up and enter it manually).

For better-explained theory (no sw though!-), Thomsett's "Options Trading for the Conservative Investor: Increasing Profits Without Increasing Your Risk" is, I think, still best. (Haven't read Wolfinger's "The Short Book on Options: A Conservative Strategy for the Buy and Hold Investor", but I believe it supports the same core ideas and strategy).

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